BlinkVlog

For Sean Dyche, the solution to Everton’s poor home form is obvious.

“We have to put the ball in the net,” he said this week, in anticipation of hosting a double-header against Newcastle United and Chelsea. “We have to keep believing. The performances have been very strong there, but seeing the games through and taking chances… that is the next level of home performance.”

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Even so, 14 games in, Everton’s form at Goodison Park remains a considerable concern. They have taken just four points from a possible 21 at home, with only promoted Burnley managing fewer on home turf.

The common perception is that Goodison Park is Everton’s fortress, your stereotypical ‘tough place to go and play’. But Fulham, Wolves, Arsenal, Luton Town and Manchester United have all left with maximum points in recent months.

Contrast this with their strong away form, where they have already have more wins — four — than in the previous two seasons combined. After three successive victories on the road, only Tottenham Hotspur had a better away record heading into the midweek batch of fixtures.

In what has been a season of improvement on the pitch, Everton’s form at Goodison has been an unusual outlier. Ignoring their 10-point deduction, they have earned just 23.5 per cent of their Premier League points in home games, compared to 58 per cent last season.

If they were to continue this pattern over the season, they would end up with the lowest share of home points in Premier League history, beating Crystal Palace’s 33 per cent in 1997-98.

Even in the Covid-19 season, when home advantage was skewed by behind-closed-doors games, 37 per cent of Everton’s points came at Goodison.

So what is going on?

Dyche is right to point to a lack of clinical edge in front of goal.

Everton rank joint-third for shots at home (with 124) and joint-fifth for big chances created (22), but have comfortably the worst big-chance conversion rate in the league, only nine per cent. For context, the next worst is 25 per cent. Finishing is not a new issue; it also plagued them last season, when they were the league’s least clinical side measured against their expected goals (xG).

That trend is continuing. As the below shows, they have missed 19 shots from inside the six-yard box this term and are underperforming their xG by 8.8 at Goodison.

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In four of their home defeats, they have registered a higher xG than their opponent, some by significantly more — 2.7 vs 1.3 against Fulham and 2.9 vs 0.9 against Luton, games that were lost 1-0 and 2-1 respectively. Plenty of chances are being created and wasted.

The main culprits have been Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Abdoulaye Doucoure and Neal Maupay who are 1.5, 1.2 and 1.4 down on their xG in home games.

Here is where it starts to get random, though.

Away from home, Calvert-Lewin and Doucoure have been hyper-clinical, scoring five times between them in league games from an xG of just over three. And as a collective, Everton are comfortably outperforming their xG too (up 1.7). Go figure.

One interpretation is that Everton’s forwards, in particular, receive different kinds of chances at home than they do away.

Including his goal against Aston Villa in the Carabao Cup, Calvert-Lewin has scored two one-on-ones and a low shot from the edge of the box against West Ham after finding space. With sides sitting deeper and space at a premium at Goodison, a lot of his efforts there have been instinctive shots or headers in the box.

Although he is known for his aerial ability, Calvert-Lewin has not scored a headed goal since May 2022 against Crystal Palace. Doucoure has also looked better running on to loose balls on the counter.

The numbers do hint, though, that Everton are not quite as bad at home or as good on the road as results are making them look.

Away from Goodison, they rank 11th for total shots and 12th for big chances, but have an expected goals against (xGA) that is eighth best in the division. In other words, they are solid defensively and clinical in attack when they play away, but profligate at home.

From the data, it would be no surprise if things started to even out during the remainder of the season. Such deviations from the norm rarely persist for any length of time.

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But perhaps there are other elements at work here, too; some of which are stylistic and some of which fall into the category of ‘intangibles’.

Everton are now the most direct side in the league (using Opta’s ‘direct speed’ measure) and tend to eschew build-up play in favour of long passes. Most of their wins this season have come when they have had less of the ball than their opponents. On the three occasions in the league when they have enjoyed the majority of the possession, they have lost two and drawn one, including the 2-1 home defeat to Luton and the 3-0 loss against Manchester United.

During his time at Burnley, Dyche suffered a number of notable cup defeats against lower league opposition, the biggest coming against Lincoln City, then of the National League, in 2017. When opponents have the physicality to neutralise his direct football, results can suffer.

Stylistically and statistically, Everton are better holding on to leads than chasing them. They are yet to lose a game this season in which they have scored first. In the eight games they have gone behind, meanwhile, they have taken just one point.

There may be a mental side to all of this, too. In the two home games Everton have picked up points, they have scored inside the opening 10 minutes to take the lead. Scoring first allows them to play their natural game, sitting deep and looking to frustrate. While playing at home is usually an advantage, it’s also easier to tap into the ‘backs against the wall’ narrative when you’re not expected to dominate. Away games seem more of a free hit.

Everton - home and away

It may well be that due to recent form, Everton are now more comfortable away from home and expect positive results. Psychologically, at least, they seem well placed to withstand pressure on the road. One result could well have an impact on the next, creating a snowball effect.

With important games on the horizon at home and a 10-point deduction to overcome, though, finding a way to convert chances into goals and pressure into wins at Goodison is the next big challenge for Dyche’s improving Everton side.

(Top photo: Ash Donelon/Manchester United via Getty Images)

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